While commissioning the NEC Meat and Beans Processing Factory in Kisozi, Gomba district on 15 July, President Yoweri Museveni hailed the joint venture between the National Enterprise Corporation (NEC) and Kenyan businessman Francis Ragwa as a step in the right direction.
“Our coffee, milk and livestock production continue to grow because of proper organisation, and we shall continue mobilising our farmers to produce even more,” he purred.
President Museveni also underscored Uganda’s ability to “supply the required raw materials” to investors. The Ugandan strongman, who won seventh elective term in January, appears to be clear-eyed about agriculture’s pathway to progress in the East African nation. Widely hailed as the backbone of the country’s economy, agriculture has added a great degree of flex to the national GDP (24 per cent) and employment figures (70 per cent).
Critics, however, contend that the mistake is in imagining that such immense agricultural potential—buttressed by fertile soils and favourable climates—translates into a silver bullet. Whereas Uganda’s coffee production continues to mark it out as a cash crop powerhouse and its enormously huge quantities of maize and beans make it a regional breadbasket, policy wonks in the country have, with some justice, been accused of giving agriculture the short end of the stick.
A corner, however, appears to have been turned. Agriculture has not just been placed on a pedestal. The Government of Uganda (GoU) appears to be intentional about integrating agricultural production with industrial manufacturing. President Museveni has needed little invitation to prioritise an approach where value is added to raw agricultural commodities. He is not in doubt that such agro-industrialisation will bode well for a country that is still classified as low income by the Bretton Woods Institutions.
Addressing pain points
Consequently, UGX 2.26 trillion has been ring-fenced in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026/27 to anchor the Agro-Industrialisation Programme. Where agriculture can address the pain points that the World Bank Group’s new Country Partnership Framework for Uganda for 2026-2035 identified is, however, an open question. The World Bank argues that job creation should be at the apex of Uganda’s development agenda during the ten-year stretch in question. There is not sufficient evidence to do more than speculate as to whether agro-industrialisation can do enough to be the country’s economic nerve centre.
Also sitting on the cornerstone of conjecture is whether agro-industrialisation can take up the vast bulk of an estimated 600,000 to 700,000 young people that enter the labour market annually. Regardless, it headlines Uganda’s much-vaunted tenfold growth strategy. The economic blueprint that also pedestals tourism development, mineral-based industrialisation as well as science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) intends to grow the economy from roughly $50 billion to $500 billion by 2040.
The GoU has identified two accelerator actions for agro-industrialisation, including commercialising and formalising farming as well as developing and deepening structured trade of value-added agricultural commodities.
“Agro-Industrialisation is the fastest route in the country’s drive towards structural transformation. In 2017, agro-manufacturing accounted for 65 per cent of Uganda’s Manufacturing Value Added (MVA). Within agro-manufacturing, food products accounted for the largest share of MVA (61 per cent), followed by beverages (13 per cent), wearing apparel (9.3 per cent), tobacco (4.3 per cent) and textiles (3.4 per cent),” the country’s Finance ministry disclosed in its tenfold growth strategy document.
“In 2021, the fastest growing segments in manufacturing based on the annual growth rate of MVA was food products (19.1 per cent), followed by textiles (18.1 per cent) and furniture (9.4 per cent). Considering that the share of manufactured products in Uganda’s merchandise export basket was only 15 per cent in 2021 compared to 49 per cent for food items in the same period, there is clearly room for increased processing of agricultural products for export,” the 2025 body of work adds.
Taking a forward leap?
The GoU is convinced that its plethora of poverty alleviation programmes, including the Parish Development Model (PDM), Emyooga, and the Youth Livelihood Programme (YLP), provide if not a forward leap then much-needed zest. It, however, remains to be seen whether livestock enterprises, food processing, small-scale farming and the like can be propped up to punch way above their weight. In his budget speech, delivered last month, Henry Musasizi, the Finance minister, went to great lengths to demonstrate how agro-industrialisation instruments are being strategically deployed to actualise the tenfold growth strategy. Agricultural Credit Facility, Uganda Development Bank financing, agricultural insurance, irrigation, extension services, and input-support programmes are some of the instruments he named.
Yet, for a country whose ombudsman has previously estimated to lose UGX10 trillion to corruption annually, there is no shortage of speed bumps. As a result, observers note that the wider job-creation ecosystem that the GoU has always ended up collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. President Museveni says he wants to use his seventh elective term to break ranks with this well-documented perfect storm.
“In this Kisanja of No More Sleep, every minister must be omusumba (pastor) of their sector by ensuring that investors have the infrastructure they need to succeed,” the President said on 15 July after commissioning the NEC Meat and Beans Processing Factory.
According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), some of the foundational necessities investors need to build and operate businesses are starting to look like they are in the finest of fettle.
“The amount of electricity power generated increases by 2.3 per cent in Quarter 3 FY 2025/26 compared to an [sic] 2.7 per cent increase in Quarter 2 FY 2025/26,” UBOS revealed in its latest index of industrial production, adding, “The amount of water collected, treated and supplied increased by 3.1 percent in Quarter 3 FY 2025/26, compared to a 4.1 per cent decrease in Quarter 2 FY 2025/26.”