The NRM party flag-bearer in the 2026 presidential polls and incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, has promised that if he is re-elected, his policies will turbo-charge Uganda’s subsistence-led economy towards the lofty heights of a $500bn high-middle income country in a span of 15 years.
However, critics are accusing the ruling party of harping on superficial campaign slogans, which are not in tandem with the country’s economic growth figures during President Museveni’s reign for nearly four decades.
Uganda’s current GDP per capita (lower-middle income) is estimated at $1,340 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the economy will need to grow consistently at double-digit growth figures to reach the upper-middle income per capita between $4,466 and $13,845.
To be able to achieve this much-vaunted qualitative leap forward, the NRM will also have to avoid repeating glaring mistakes of the past 40 years—corruption driven by crony capitalism—the creation of a bloated patronage system— the dubious sale of government assets— and the low investments in energy, road, railway infrastructure, and hospitals.
The candidate elected as President in 2026 will be confronted with a growing youth unemployment crisis—shrinking global markets driven by tariffs and protectionist policies—an intricate global supply chain— the rising cost of external borrowing— and a technological and Artificial Intelligence (AI) knowledge gap, which has left Sub-Saharan economies lagging behind.
Particularly, the unemployment crisis across sub-Saharan Africa has created a latent security concern, which has evolved into an existential threat for fragile regimes, which must cope with youth-led ‘bread protests.’
To be able to unlock the potential of Uganda, which is a mineral-rich country, there is need to recalibrate the fiscal dogma by widening the tax base, tighten the purse strings and enforce austerity measures across the bloated government, investing foreign aid in the most productive sectors, expanding stable electricity supply across the rural backwaters, restoring Uganda’s lush-green landscapes, empowering indigenous industrialists and building a cordon sanitaire across the borders of Uganda.
Of gains, leaps
The NRM 2026-2031 manifesto, whose mantra is “protecting the gains as we make a high qualitative leap into high middle-income status,” reads like an edict from President Museveni without the input of the ruling party’s bureaucratic wonks. This is based on the views of the President, who defines the reconstruction of Uganda’s feudal economy as a continuation of the revolutionary struggle.
The NRM’s 2026-2031 manifesto highlights peace, development, infrastructure, both social and economic wealth, jobs, services, markets, and political federation as its major planks.
“This is how this economy has grown from $3.9 billion in 1986 to $66.1 billion by the end of the financial year 2025-2026 using the forex method and $188 billion by the PPP method. In other words, the economy of Uganda has expanded 17 times ever since 1986, in spite of the corruption and disorientation of some of the actors,” reads the NRM manifesto, which alludes to the fact that corruption remains a stain on the national conscience.
The NRM also lists improving infrastructure financing to repair Uganda’s moribund railway and roads. “The under-budgeting that had crept back and the suspected inflation of costs will be firmly dealt with so that the tarmac roads are continuously smooth and the murram roads are well maintained.”
However, if the NRM government is to live up to its promises, it should settle its outstanding debts owed to a vast majority of contractors who are owed billions in shillings and reduce the period in which roads are completed. For instance, the 23km Kira-Kasangati-Matugga road, which commenced in 2021, remains incomplete five years later.
The ruling party’s manifesto lists economic development as another pillar. A generic subject, the manifesto lists roads, railways, pipelines, electricity, piped water, telephones, schools and health centres. “It is these assets — collectively termed as infrastructure — that support the economy (economic infrastructure) and the society (social infrastructure). Without them, the economy cannot grow. Moreover, these assets must enable us to have low costs of doing business.”
Work to be done
According to Global Petrol Prices, Uganda is listed as the ninth African country in 2023 with the cheapest electricity prices in kilowatts per hour, while its gasoline prices are the ninth highest in Africa.
With Uganda on the verge of oil commercial production, there is a glimmer of hope that gasoline prices will subside. Uganda must build robust technology and generative artificial intelligence.
To improve household incomes, the NRM government needs to transform its rural-subsistence economy and retool farmers to rely on modern, technologically driven farming practices and affordable access to credit. Some of these modern methods of farming include solar-power irrigation systems and mobile apps that connect farmers to markets and young unemployed youths to jobs within the gig-economy.
There is a need to introduce climate-resilient crops, integrate trees into farming systems to enhance carbon sequestration, improve biodiversity, and provide shade and windbreaks that protect crops and livestock. The NRM manifesto claims that households can create wealth even when the development (e.g. infrastructure) is primordial. But an improved infrastructure, including roads and railways, is the fulcrum for the commercialisation of agriculture.
The manifesto recommends seven activities. “The global demand for coffee is $460 billion, fruits $688 billion, dairy products $893 billion, poultry products $336 billion, piggery $397.5 billion, and fish $ 671.45 billion. However, the country also needs low-value products such as cotton, tobacco, tea, maize, sugar-cane, indigenous cattle, etc. If you do these things on a big scale, you will get good money.” It states further: “The second sector of wealth is manufacturing and artisanship. Here, we are referring to factories and artisan working, etc. Many of the factory owners are friends from outside Uganda — Chinese, Indians, Arabs, etc. However, Ugandans are also coming up. Look at the Mulwanas, the Sudhirs, etc. The factories are for adding value to agricultural products, minerals, fresh water resources, forests, etc. Then, there is the knowledge economy of automobiles, electronics, vaccines, etc., where our people create the products of the brain.”
Wrecking ball
There are concerns that the government has prioritised multinational firms that are recipients of tax holidays and free parcels of land at the expense of local investors. The Uganda Revenue Authority (URA), with its high taxes, has thrown a wrecking ball, which threatens to crush indigenous businesses at the heart of generating wealth.
The NRM has also encouraged the practice of cherry-picking private businesses tied to state largesse for a cash out at the expense of other vital sectors. For instance, the Atiak sugar, the 20-year Presidential Initiative on Banana Industrial Development, the Dei Bio Pharma’s pharmaceutical plant, where the government has spent trillions of shillings, are white elephants.
The NRM manifesto lists services as the ‘third sector of wealth creation. It includes transport, medical, music, preaching, tourism, hospitality, etc. The manifesto states, “At the moment, services constitute 41.9 per cent of the economy of Uganda. Many of the services depend a lot on peace and infrastructure. Industries like tourism, transport, entertainment, music, hospitality, etc., immediately collapse when there is no peace. Good roads and airports also encourage some of the services, such as tourism, transport, etc.” However, the turnaround period for completing infrastructure projects leaves a lot to be desired.
The creation of jobs is the fourth pillar of the NRM manifesto, which rightly postulates that we are living in an epoch where we have come towards the end of the white-collar job lifespan.
“The question is: ‘Where do jobs come from, mainly?’ The danger in Uganda is the colonial thinking on account of the distortions caused by that phenomenon of colonialism. When the colonialists grabbed Uganda from the incompetent and ego-centric chiefs, they completely distorted our economy, which provided full employment in the form of emyooga. There was no phenomenon of the unemployed in the traditional society except for the vagabonds,” reads the NRM manifesto.
If janitors, plumbers, carpenters, farmers, and labourers are to thrive in a gig economy, they need to be imparted with new skill sets, cheap credit, and health insurance, among others.
Overhaul due
On the subject of education, the NRM continues to lay emphasis on the quantitative aspect of enrolling learners, long hours of study, and rote memorisation at the expense of the qualitative learning outcomes, which impart skills to learners as problem solvers. In an era where teachers have taken a back seat, curious learners are relying on algorithms to solve complex problems for their communities. There is also a need to overhaul the education system, which perpetuates social strata and income inequalities.
According to a 2024 study by Human Rights Watch and the Initiative for Social and Economic Rights (ISER) titled, “Lay a Strong Foundation for All Children: Fees as a Discriminatory Barrier to Pre-Primary Education in Uganda,” the disparities in access to pre-primary schooling for low-income and rural families have lifelong consequences and exacerbate Uganda’s wealth inequality. This bears parallels with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) study, which states that, “educational inequalities start early in life and disadvantages accumulate over the lifecycle.”
To that end, the NRM manifesto reads: “In the coming term, we are determined to implement free education for our children in government schools [primary, secondary, and tertiary]. The good thing is that we have moved reasonably well on the expansion of the education network. We now have 12,549 government or government-aided primary schools, 1,416 government or government-aided secondary schools, 189 tertiary institutions, and 10 government universities. It is through these that we shall provide free education, our long-held wish that some local groups have been blocking. The total enrollment of learners in Uganda is currently 11,130,179 in the primary schools, 1,709,267 in the secondary schools, 63,055 students in tertiary institutions, and 220,000 students in the universities.”
The manifesto prioritises the study of science and technical studies at the risk of alienating learners and teachers of the Arts subjects. Currently, Arts teachers on strike earn a monthly salary of UGX1,087,162 for a degree holder, while their Sciences counterparts earn UGX4,000,000. These salary disparities could amplify a skewed learning system, leaving out a workforce of professionals vital in critical and cognitive thinking.
Integration
Markets are another critical pillar of the NRM manifesto. A fierce critic of balkanisation and fragmentation, President Museveni is a leading exponent of free markets and non-protectionist barriers to promote trade and commerce across East Africa. However, the regional trade bloc, which recorded fleeting success, has become a cautionary tale of a botched integration process. Nearly 44 per cent of contract staff were recently furloughed at the cash-strapped East African Legislative Assembly. Kenya is the only country that has met its financial obligations, while Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda have made partial payments. But states such as Burundi, South Sudan, and the DRC, which are amongst the poorest nations in the world and nearly failed states, have failed to meet most of their financial obligations to the community.
The manifesto espouses the values of patriotism and pan-Africanism. “We need, not only a United Uganda to give market to our wealth creators, but also a United East Africa and Africa. Hence, our four principles of Patriotism [love Uganda], PanAfricanism [love Africa], socio-economic transformation, and democracy. All Africans need to know the importance of a United African market. Why is the USA prosperous and the nearby Latin America in misery, yet Latin America has got more natural resources than the USA? My view is that the main cause may be the fragmented market in Latin America. How easily can a business person succeed in that fragmented market situation where the Continent is rich in the number of Presidents and natural resources but poor in everything else?
Strategic security
The last pillar of the manifesto deals with Uganda’s geo-political and geo-strategic position in Africa and a multi-polar world led by the United States and China in the epoch of stealth technology and hypersonic missiles.
The NRM manifesto states, “the final word is strategic security. How can Africa be secure from all threats? With economic integration, we unite the markets and create prosperity. However, prosperity alone does not guarantee strategic security. A developed Japan and a developed South Korea still depend on others for strategic security. In the Second World War, the developed countries of Holland, Denmark, Belgium, France, etc., were overrun by Germany. It was the mighty Soviet Union and, later on, the USA, that rescued those countries and the world.”
The ruling party manifesto states that Africa needs to roll out the Africa Continental Free Trade Area [AfCFTA], which will enhance a broader consumer base, streamline customs procedures, eliminate tariffs on numerous goods, and harmonise trade regulations.
“However, for strategic security, we need another medicine. This is the medicine of political integration in the form of the formation of the East African Federation, taking advantage of the similarities and linkages among the people of this area, including the use of Swahili to unite us. It is what gives us the seventh crucial word —the East African Federation, through political integration. The above are the seven words that we need to put uppermost in our heads. (peace; development; wealth; jobs; service delivery; markets; and political federation). This is how we come to our present intention of executing a qualitative leap and transformation into a high middle-income status of $500 billion in the next few years.”
Mistrust and mutual suspicion, and the lack of a homogeneous political system, continue to deter the progress of the East African Federation. For instance, Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, and the DRC have term limits, while Uganda, Rwanda, and South Sudan have no term limits. Uganda finds itself geometrically curved out by imperialists in the Great Lakes—one of the most volatile pockets on earth.
In the broader geopolitical dance, Uganda’s past casts long shadows over its position as an anchor of stability in the region. With a spectre of violence, coups, and bloodshed haunting the country’s past, there is an urgent need to discuss the subject of succession to ensure that the country can protect its gains as a nascent democracy and ensure that the power is handed over peacefully to the next leader.